Everyone wants to know when’s the right time to start investing in crypto again. The answer is probably sooner than you think. In fact, we’re probably on the cusp of the next crypto boom right now! \
What it will take for the market to bottom out?
Over the first 3mo of 2019 we’ve seen a similar narrative play out across the industry. ICO’s are dead. Treasury Management has become a top priority for previous ICO’s. There’s few investable companies left in the space and those that are, are only for equity. And the price of crypto has mostly stabilized with BTC hovering around $3600 and Eth around $120.
What’s this all mean?
- Most companies that had raised money have now sold off their digital assets and are focused on good treasury Management. Meaning there’s no heavy downward pressure anymore for selling off. EOS liquidated billions of ETH in 2018 alone. But there’s very little left to sell.
- No new ICO’s raising money in BTC/ETH means no reason for large reserves to sell in the future.
- The bottom is close to in with price stabilizing for 3mo after a wild 12months previously that saw the industry decline 90% across the board.
Most OG’Snin the industry will tell you the real bottom looks worse than this. For example, Tron is still renting out Penthouses at conferences. But this bottom Is different than previous ones because so much money has come into the system, so a lot of companies are still flush with cash. Filecoin, Tron, Binance, EOS all made close to a billion dollars in good treasury management and those funds are here to stay.
The bottom is happening now
At this time almost half the crypto companies that raised money previously are shutting down, either because of lack of funding, lack of motivation, or because they exit scammed. What this looks like to the outside is a lack of development on their Github code base and the lack of user growth.
Because these zombie crypto companies still have tokens out there, many people think they still have a chance. But exchanges are being responsible and starting to “de-list” all these shitcoins. When we see ~50% of shitcoins delisted from top exchanges, that’s what the bottom will look like. And we’re getting closer and closer every day.
The next boom — Estimated Q3 2019
With most of the downward pressure gone and the industry moving sideways, the timing is ripe for a new boom. It just needs a catalyst. Here are the 5 things happening right now that are expected to take the industry to new heights
IEO — IEO’s are the new ICO’s. With Exchanges acting as the new Investment Banks, they are choosing who can start new coins, limiting the amount raised (usually under 10mm), and forcing major shareholders to vest tokens over 1-2year periods. Both Binance and OKex have seen IEO’s sell out in seconds in 2019, most successfully Bittorent (BTT) and now Linex Foundation. The IEO boom is likely just another short term hype market, similar to ICO’s, but they offer a new positive storyline that is sure to re-attract investors to the space with the promise of 10x+ returns.
JPM Coin — launching on Ethereum In Q3/Q4 2019, JPM coin is nothing short of the largest financial institution in the world getting into crypto. If that’s new a big enough reason for the market to boom, then maybe this is
FB Coin — the largest social network on the planet is creating a stable coin to unify the digital world. It will be used across all its networks and is expected to launch Q3/Q4.
PoS/Sharding — we are getting closer and closer to the release of FFG and CBC Casper protocol upgrades that will see the scalability problem in crypto begin to be solved. With major upgrades to Ethereum expected to be put in place as soon as Q4 2019. Once these upgrades are in place the true power of DAPPs and DGov can start to be fulfilled.
STO’s — gotcha.. STO’s don’t mean shit right now. They are a non-factor.
Major economic collapses — As we’ve seen in Venezuela, major economies collapsing build the narrative for the importance of digital currencies. For the next boom to happen all it would take is 1 major government to start accumilating coins. Just one. It’s very much a first mover advantage play here too, as once one country buys in others can follow. The result will see Bitcoin push to new highs and likely faster then anyone can imagine.
Timing the bottom
So when is the right time to invest? Warren Buffet says there is no way to time the bottom of the market, you should be happy if you can hit it within 20%. For now, the bottom looks like $3k Bitcoin, and $80 Eth. If you can get in within 20% of that then you’re probably in pretty good shape. Once the next boom happens this 90% firesale will be over and you’ll be left telling stories of when bitcoin used to be XYZ. Do you want to be telling the story of the time you could have bought in at this price or the time you did?